Thursday, July 16, 2009

ACM / Economic calendar and daily foreign exchange news & analysis

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Daily Newsletter: 16/07/2009 
By Loic Bondiguel - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
Today's Economic Calendar:
 TIME (GMT)    EVENT  VALUE NAME   CONS.  
06:45    FR:CPI Month over Month 0.3%  
    Year over Year -0.4%  
08:00    IT:Merchandise Trade Level E0B  
12:30    US:Jobless Claims New Claims - Level 535K  
13:00    US:Treasury International Capital Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities $0B  
14:00    US:Philadelphia Fed Survey General Business Conditions Index - Level -5  
14:30    US:EIA Natural Gas Report Weekly Change 0bcf  
17:00    US:Housing Market Index Housing Market Index 0  
20:30    US:Money Supply M2 Weekly Change $0B  

Full week Economic Calendar        

Q2 Earnings season spurs risk appetite
News and Events:
The main contributor to Wednesday's trading was, once again, the resurgence of risk appetite as investor confidence soared.
Better than expected Empire Manufacturing, industrial production, and CPI data, and a lack of disappointing earnings helped push US equities up 3% and weakened the dollar against most of the majors, with the exception of the yen.
The 3% gain in stocks transmitted quickly to risk currencies which had a third successive good day (see below) and now having fully erased their losses of the last two weeks thanks, partly, to the FOMC minutes which were less downbeat than previously while US economic data releases were solid.
With the Dollar and Yen weakening sharply across the board, commodity prices leapt higher with oil up almost 4% alongside copper with a similar rise.

The Far East session today proved to be a little more active than the previous one as risk appetite took a small step backwards after the announcement that talks between the US authorities and CIT Group had ended with no agreement to support the US lender. This caused a little unease amongst traders and some profit taking ensued.
EUR/USD slipped below 1.4100 and a macro fund was seen pushing it further towards 1.4070. We heard talk of a large barrier at 1.4200 with sizeable offers trying to protect it from 1.4150.

Read Today's Key Issues and The Risk Today        



Resistance and Support:
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
1.4200 1.6580 95.50 1.0930
1.4145 1.6490 94.60 1.0875
1.4100 1.6410 94.30 1.0810
1.4072 1.6358 93.62 1.0770
1.4030 1.6260 93.00 1.0730
1.3930 1.6205 92.20 1.0670
1.3870 1.6145 91.00 1.0620
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot


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