Friday, July 17, 2009

ACM / Economic calendar and daily foreign exchange news & analysis

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Daily Newsletter: 17/07/2009 
By Loic Bondiguel - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
Today's Economic Calendar:
 TIME (GMT)    EVENT  VALUE NAME   CONS.  
09:00    EMU:Merchandise Trade Level 0.8B  
11:00    CA:CPI Core Month over Month 0%  
    Year over Year 1.9%  
11:00    CA:CPI Month over Month 0.3%  
    Year over Year -0.3%  
12:30    US:Housing Starts Starts - Level - SAAR 0.53M  
    Permits - Level - SAAR 0M  

Full week Economic Calendar        

Dollar pares gains ahead of BofA and CITI Q2 results
News and Events:
JPMorgan posted better than expected Q2 earnings (28c vs. 5c) although there was some concern in the release that they see losses in cards until end 2010. Also thrown in to make things interesting was surprisingly good Jobless Claims data which dropped last week more than economists forecast, increasing demand for higher- yielding assets. Initial jobless claims dropped to 522k from 565K last month.

US equities advanced 1% as earnings continued to surprise to the upside. Financial equities remained flat however after a major bank tempered its better than expected earnings by cautioning on the outlook for consumer loans.
The day's other major earnings releases, Google ($5.30 vs. $5.08) and IBM ($2.32 vs. $2.01) also beat estimates with the latter revising up it's full year outlook continuing to support the healthy tone shown by the tech sector recently. Risk currencies rallied on overnight but with a noticeable slowing in the pace of their gains.

EUR/USD fell back to 1.4100, AUD/USD dropped back below 0.8000 while GBP/USD dipped to 1.6350. The JPY made gains with USD/JPY falling to 93.50 while EUR/JPY was sold off to 132.00.

CAD also underperformed giving back some of its outsized gains this week which had been driven by the improving risk climate although it remained the best performer for the week to date.

Read Today's Key Issues and The Risk Today        



Resistance and Support:
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
1.4200 1.6580 95.50 1.0930
1.4160 1.6490 94.60 1.0875
1.4125 1.6350 94.10 1.0810
1.4102 1.6304 93.72 1.0779
1.4100 1.6260 93.45 1.0730
1.4030 1.6205 93.20 1.0670
1.3930 1.6145 92.20 1.0620
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot


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