Forex Crunch

Posted: 23 Jun 2009 04:42 AM PDT

Moody’s calmed investors by keeping the credit rating a solid Triple A for the US. This lowered fears and casued risk appetite - the dollar is falling across the board.

After Britain’s credit downgrade, there were strong fears that this could happen in the US. Today, Moody’s had a good mood for the US dollar. From Reuters:

“The U.S. government triple-A is safe,” Pierre Cailleteau, team managing director of Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group, said at a media briefing on sovereign credit ratings held in Tokyo.

Moody’s has a stable outlook on the U.S. rating, which indicates a change is not expected over the next 18 months.

The market reaction was big sigh of relief - the worst scenario didn’t happen. A credit downgrade for the US could swirl the world’s financial system. As this did not happen, a safe haven isn’t necessary, and risk aversion made way for risk appetite - the dollar falls.

EUR/USD climbed from 1.3850 to almost 1.40. GBP/USD went up from 1.6250 to 1.6230, and also the Candian dollar gained today. USD/CAD fell to 1.15. There’s a strong resistance line there for the loonie, so the Canadian dollar has little room to make gains.

This good, risk-appetite news is stopping the Iran-election effect that supported the US dollar.

A good mood, courtesy of Moody’s is alson expected in the stock markets.

Happy forex trading!

Forex Daily Outlook - June 23th 2009

Posted: 22 Jun 2009 02:00 PM PDT

Economic indicators gear up today with many European PMI figures and American Existing Home Sales. After a strong start for the dollar, tension rises towards Wednesday’s FOMC Statement. The escalation in Iran also supports the greenback.

The Iranian army has vowed to interfere to stop the protests, that haven’t stopped. The troubles in this oil rich and nuclear ambitious nation cause fears around the world and this ignites risk aversion behavior. More about the Iran election crisis and forex.

GfK German Consumer Climate starts a day with many indicators in Europe, and it isn’t expected to move from 2.5 points. French Consumer Spending is expected to continue rising, this time by 02.%.

Purchasing Manager’s Index then dominate the European scene. First Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI are released in France at 8:00 GMT. Half an hour later, the exact same figures are released in Germany. At 8:00 GMT, the all-European PMI figures are released.

All the European PMI figures are predicted to be on the rise, but none are expected to cross the critical 50 points mark, that show an expansion of the economy.

In Britain, BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale will speak and might move the markets. The more important event is the BBA Mortgage Approvals. After the Rightmove HPI fell yesterday, this housing figure is predicted to rise from 27.7K to 29.5K.

Fore more on GBP/USD, read the British Pound Outlook.

In Switzerland, Trade Balance is expected to show a shrinking surplus of 1.86 billion. The Swissy is mostly moved by the greenback’s moves these days.

In Canada, BOC Governor Mark Carney will speak today. USD/CAD crossed the critical 1.1470 line, and Carney probably won’t help the Canadian dollar to retrace. For more about this North American pair, check out the Canadian Dollar Outlook.

Existing Home Sales are published at 14:00 GMT. This important indicator is expected to advance from 4.68 to 4.82 million houses. A good result will strengthen the notion that a recovery is real.

American HPI is predicted to fall by 0.3%. The Richmond Manufacturing Index is expected to rise from 4 to 5 points.

In the evening, President Barack Obama will hold a press conference and will most probably speak about the economy.

Just before the end of the day, Japanese Trade Balance is expected to return to surplus, after recording a deficit last month.

That’s it. Happy forex trading.