Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Forex Crunch

Forex Crunch


Forex Trading is Growing

Posted: 22 Jul 2009 02:41 AM PDT

Forex Daily Outlook - July 22nd 2009

Posted: 21 Jul 2009 02:00 PM PDT

ACM - Séance asiatique /Snap shot (22/07/2009)

Asia Session: China State Construction Engineering Corp Moves Towards IPO
Snap-Shot
22 July 2009 - 11:44 CEST  
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
SEK0.56
NZD0.41
AUD0.37
CAD0.14
JPY0.13
EUR0.05
DKK0.05
NOK0.03
CHF-0.11
GBP-0.37

Global indexes Current level % Change
Nikkei 225 Index9,723.16+ 0.73
Hang Seng Index19,248.17- 1.30
Shanghai Index3,296.62+ 2.59
FTSE 100 Index4,473.28- 0.17
DAX Index5,081.70- 0.24
SMI Index5,621.88- 0.25
DJIA futures8,824.00- 0.69

World markets Current level % Change
Gold947.10- 0.14
Silver13.47- 0.55
VIX23.87- 2.17
Crude wti64.83- 1.18
USD Index79.00+ 0.21


Todays calender Estimates Previous Country / GMT
BoE MPC minutes, vote9-09-0GBP / 08.30
Industrial orders, % m/m May1.8-0.8,-31.9EUR / 09.00
CBI industrial trends, total orders, net bal Jul-45-51GBP / 10.00
CBI quarterly trends, business optimism, net bal Q---40GBP / 10.00
Retail sales less autos, % m/m May---0.5CAD / 12.30
FHFA house price index, % m/m (y/y) May-0.2, -6.6-0.1, -6.8USD / 14.00
Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers semi-annual Monetar----USD / 14.00
Trade balance, bn JPY Jun610298JPY / 23.50

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8260
R 1: 0.8235
CURRENT: 0.8133
S 1: 0.7925
S 2: 0.7815

EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 134.80
CURRENT: 132.45
S 1: 132.28
S 2: 131.60

USDCAD
R 2: 1.1350
R 1: 1.1225
CURRENT: 1.1079
S 1: 1.0930
S 2: 1.0785

Market Brief

We are seeing a slight pull back in risk correlated trades, after the initial euphoria over China State Construction Engineering Corp moving closer to its much anticipated IPO and equity indexes have made new yearly highs, has worn off. While Asian regional indexes were broadly higher (Shanghai's up 2.59%), European stock markets have failed to follow and US futures are pointing to a lower open. Right now, the momentum in the EURUSD seems to be waning, as the correction from Tuesday's 1.4280 highs continues. We haven't witnessed any real earning surprises to the downside as expected, while Caterpillar tripled earning expectations, which have supported risk appetite. The much hyped Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony didn't surprise the markets, as he stayed well within the pre-released WSJ article script. Overall, he provided details of the Fed's exit strategy from QE, focused on the fact that unemployment could undermine the US fragile recovery and that the current stimulus measures would stay in place for some time. In Canada, the BoC held rates steady at 0.25% while strengthening the language regarding the recent CAD appreciation. Market reacted by pushing USDCAD off the 1.0965 support to 1.1110. And finally Australian CPI came in lower than expected. However, this has not dampened expectations that the next RBA move will be higher. We expect rate expectations, the global and domestic recovery to support the AUD mid term (risk appetite will be the core determinate near term).

Stratregy Desk
+41 (22) 593 62 90
Dealing Desk:
+41 (22) 319 22 02
Sales Desk
+41 (22) 593 22 03
All ACM staff (except dealing desk staff) are at your disposal to reply from 09:00-19:00 CET only. The telephone dealing desk is reserved for ACM customers only
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency and precious metals trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

ACM - Séance asiatique /Snap shot (22/07/2009)

Asia Session: China State Construction Engineering Corp Moves Towards IPO
Snap-Shot
22 July 2009 - 11:44 CEST  
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
SEK0.56
NZD0.41
AUD0.37
CAD0.14
JPY0.13
EUR0.05
DKK0.05
NOK0.03
CHF-0.11
GBP-0.37

Global indexes Current level % Change
Nikkei 225 Index9,723.16+ 0.73
Hang Seng Index19,248.17- 1.30
Shanghai Index3,296.62+ 2.59
FTSE 100 Index4,473.28- 0.17
DAX Index5,081.70- 0.24
SMI Index5,621.88- 0.25
DJIA futures8,824.00- 0.69

World markets Current level % Change
Gold947.10- 0.14
Silver13.47- 0.55
VIX23.87- 2.17
Crude wti64.83- 1.18
USD Index79.00+ 0.21


Todays calender Estimates Previous Country / GMT
BoE MPC minutes, vote9-09-0GBP / 08.30
Industrial orders, % m/m May1.8-0.8,-31.9EUR / 09.00
CBI industrial trends, total orders, net bal Jul-45-51GBP / 10.00
CBI quarterly trends, business optimism, net bal Q---40GBP / 10.00
Retail sales less autos, % m/m May---0.5CAD / 12.30
FHFA house price index, % m/m (y/y) May-0.2, -6.6-0.1, -6.8USD / 14.00
Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers semi-annual Monetar----USD / 14.00
Trade balance, bn JPY Jun610298JPY / 23.50

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8260
R 1: 0.8235
CURRENT: 0.8133
S 1: 0.7925
S 2: 0.7815

EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 134.80
CURRENT: 132.45
S 1: 132.28
S 2: 131.60

USDCAD
R 2: 1.1350
R 1: 1.1225
CURRENT: 1.1079
S 1: 1.0930
S 2: 1.0785

Market Brief

We are seeing a slight pull back in risk correlated trades, after the initial euphoria over China State Construction Engineering Corp moving closer to its much anticipated IPO and equity indexes have made new yearly highs, has worn off. While Asian regional indexes were broadly higher (Shanghai's up 2.59%), European stock markets have failed to follow and US futures are pointing to a lower open. Right now, the momentum in the EURUSD seems to be waning, as the correction from Tuesday's 1.4280 highs continues. We haven't witnessed any real earning surprises to the downside as expected, while Caterpillar tripled earning expectations, which have supported risk appetite. The much hyped Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony didn't surprise the markets, as he stayed well within the pre-released WSJ article script. Overall, he provided details of the Fed's exit strategy from QE, focused on the fact that unemployment could undermine the US fragile recovery and that the current stimulus measures would stay in place for some time. In Canada, the BoC held rates steady at 0.25% while strengthening the language regarding the recent CAD appreciation. Market reacted by pushing USDCAD off the 1.0965 support to 1.1110. And finally Australian CPI came in lower than expected. However, this has not dampened expectations that the next RBA move will be higher. We expect rate expectations, the global and domestic recovery to support the AUD mid term (risk appetite will be the core determinate near term).

Stratregy Desk
+41 (22) 593 62 90
Dealing Desk:
+41 (22) 319 22 02
Sales Desk
+41 (22) 593 22 03
All ACM staff (except dealing desk staff) are at your disposal to reply from 09:00-19:00 CET only. The telephone dealing desk is reserved for ACM customers only
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency and precious metals trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

ACM / Economic calendar and daily foreign exchange news & analysis

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Demo|Live|Free Practice 
Daily Newsletter: 21/07/2009 
By Peter Rosenstreich - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
Today's Economic Calendar:
 TIME (GMT)    EVENT  VALUE NAME   CONS.  
11:45    US:ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Store Sales - W/W change 0%  
    Store Sales - Y/Y 0%  
12:55    US:Redbook Store Sales Y/Y change 0%  
13:00    CA:Bank of Canada Announcement Change 0bp  
    Level 0.25%  

Full week Economic Calendar        

Bernanke Goes To Congress
News and Events:
With a light calendar today and low volumes, price action is still defined by choppy trading and lack of direction.

In Australia, the RBA released the July Board Meeting minutes, where the central bank held rates at 3.00%.

Leading up to Bernanke's congressional testimony, the Chairman penned an article for the WSJ. In this morning article, he made it clear it was highly unlikely that tightening would occur for a while, given the uncertain economic conditions.

In Canada , the BoC will meet today and is universally expected to keep rates at hold at 0.25%.

Read Today's Key Issues and The Risk Today        



Resistance and Support:
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
1.4350 1.6620 96.80 1.0875
1.4280 1.6590 96.25 1.0764
1.4250 1.6550 94.60 1.0707
1.4211 1.6429 94.16 1.0695
1.4150 1.6381 93.86 1.0654
1.4055 1.6270 93.20 1.0590
1.3920 1.6145 92.60 1.0550
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot


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